Fox Run’s Crime Trend Fits on Three Nights

Two years of police data says the neighborhood is quiet, steady, and almost boring. With one exception. Somebody has been working the parked cars, and they do it in bursts.

Fox Run neighbors called the San Antonio Police Department 315 times between August 2024 and May 2026. Across 451 homes, that is one call per household every two and a half years. Two thirds of them were not crimes at all. They were welfare checks, noise complaints, parked cars that looked out of place, and neighbors asking an officer to swing by.

Strip out everything that is not a crime and the picture gets quieter still. Property crime calls run about 7 per 100 homes a year. Calls dispatched as a crime against a person run under 5 per 100 homes a year, and most of those are family disturbances rather than strangers.

What follows is what the numbers actually show, including the parts that will disappoint anyone hoping for a dramatic story.

About this data. Everything below comes straight from SAPD’s public Calls for Service report, filtered to the Fox Run HOA. These are calls for service, not crimes and not crime reports. Each row is one time somebody dialed police and an officer got sent. Calls carry whatever label the caller used on the phone, so a call dispatched as a “robbery” may turn out to be a burglary once the officer arrives, and the record still says robbery. Locations are block numbers, not addresses. “16500 Hunting Valley” means somewhere in that block, and no house can be identified from it.

The neighborhood is not getting worse. It is not getting better either.

Month to month, the call count bounces between 6 and 27. That looks like something is happening. It is not.

Monthly calls for service, Fox Run August 2024 through May 2026. Volume is flat; month-to-month swings are noise, not trend. 95% expected range at a constant rate (7–22) 0 7 14 21 28 Aug 24 Jan 25 Jul 25 Jan 26 average 14.3 calls/month Linear trend over 22 months: −0.1 calls per month (p = 0.60). No statistically detectable direction.
Monthly calls for service, August 2024 through May 2026. The shaded band is the range a perfectly stable neighborhood would produce 95% of the time by pure chance. Almost every month lands inside it.

Draw a line through 22 months of data and it points down by a tenth of a call per month, which is statistically indistinguishable from perfectly flat. A month with 27 calls followed by a month with 9 is what randomness looks like at this volume. It is not a crime wave followed by a crackdown.

Worth knowing for anyone who watches these numbers: calls arrive in clumps. One incident often generates three or four calls within a couple of hours, which makes a single month look worse or better than the neighborhood really is. Comparing this March to last March will mislead you. Comparing a year to a year will not.

What neighbors actually call about

What people actually call about All 315 calls, August 2024 through May 2026. Ranked by call volume. Theft 35 Welfare Check 34 Traffic Related 23 Suspicious Vehicle 20 Disturbance 16 Miscellaneous 15 Disturbance Family 14 Abandoned Vehicle 13 Suspicious Person 12 Patrol By 11 Assault In Progress 11 Disturbance Loud Music 10 Information 7 Assist the Public 7 property or person crime as dispatched Welfare checks, patrol-by requests and disturbances outnumber every crime category combined.
The 14 most common dispatch labels across all 315 calls. Orange bars are calls dispatched as a property crime or a crime against a person.

Theft leads at 35 calls. Welfare checks follow at 34, which is its own quiet story: somebody in Fox Run is checking on somebody else about three times a month. Traffic complaints, suspicious vehicles, and disturbances round out the top of the list.

Add up every label that describes a crime and it comes to 100 calls out of 315. The other 215 are the ordinary business of a neighborhood that pays attention.

The one thing that genuinely changed: cars

Vehicle break-ins and vehicle thefts do not appear at all in the first ten months of this data. Not once. Since June 2025 there have been eleven. That is the single strongest pattern in two years of calls, and it is not close.

Vehicle break-ins and vehicle thefts arrive in clusters Every such call in the file. Zero in the first ten months; eleven since June 2025, on seven distinct dates. Sep 24 Dec 24 Mar 25 Jun 25 Sep 25 Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 2 calls Jun 30 2 calls Nov 22 3 calls Apr 27 Each dot is one dispatched call. Three dates account for seven of the eleven calls. This is episodic, not a steady drip.
Every vehicle burglary and vehicle theft call in the file. Three dates produce seven of the eleven calls.

Look at how they arrive. June 30, 2025: two calls, same block of Hunting Valley, three hours apart. November 22, 2025: two calls, Martins Ferry and Fort Oswego. April 27, 2026: three calls, two of them on the same block of Martins Ferry within 21 minutes of each other.

Three nights account for seven of the eleven. This is not somebody hitting Fox Run every week. This is somebody walking a street, pulling door handles, taking whatever is sitting on the seat, and moving on. Martins Ferry, Hunting Valley, Fort Oswego, Burr Hill, and Fox Knoll have all been touched.

Put a number on the risk. All eleven calls fall inside a single twelve-month stretch, June 2025 through May 2026. Spread across 451 homes, that is roughly one house in 41 over the past year. Four of the eleven involved a vehicle actually taken, which is closer to one house in 113.

The countermeasure is unglamorous and it works. Lock the car every night, including the one in the driveway. Take the garage remote inside. Leave nothing visible, because a bag on the passenger seat is the entire reason a handle gets pulled. Porch lights matter more than cameras here, since the whole point of this kind of theft is speed.

The traffic complaints are about school, not crime

Same ten months, one year apart Aug 2024–May 2025 vs Aug 2025–May 2026. Total volume rose 134 → 141, within normal variation. 2024–25 2025–26 Other 78 72 -6 Property crime 27 29 +2 Traffic 10 24 +14 Crimes against person 19 16 -3 change Uncorrected, only the traffic increase (10 → 24) reaches p < 0.05. See the limits section of the post.
The same ten months, one year apart. Total call volume barely moved. Traffic calls more than doubled.

Total volume went from 134 calls to 141 across matched ten-month windows, which is nothing. Property crime calls rose by two. Crimes against persons fell by three. The only category that moved meaningfully was traffic, from 10 calls to 24.

Pull those calls apart and the pattern is unmistakable. Nearly all of them land on two stretches of road: the 16651 to 16699 block of Willow Run and the 16717 to 16799 block of Hunting Valley. The timestamps cluster at 6:38, 7:04, 7:11, 7:29, 7:34, 7:51 and 8:08 in the morning, then again at 2:47, 3:02, 3:13 and 3:17 in the afternoon.

Those are drop-off and pickup windows. Fox Run does not have a new traffic problem. It has a school-hour congestion problem on two specific stretches at two specific times, and that is the kind of complaint an HOA can take to the city with timestamps attached.

When calls happen, and where

When the phone rings Calls by hour of day, all 315 calls. Fox Run is a daytime and early-evening calling neighborhood. 0 8 16 24 midnight – 6 a.m.: 31 calls (10%) 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 hour of day (24-hour clock) Peak hours are 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. and 10 p.m. The quietest stretch is 3 a.m. to 6 a.m.
All 315 calls by hour of day. The shaded block covers midnight through 6 a.m.

Only 31 calls in two years came in between midnight and 6 a.m., under 10% of the total. The busy stretch is early afternoon, 1 p.m. to 5 p.m., with a second bump around 10 p.m. Day of the week barely matters: every day of the week lands between 40 and 50 calls. There is no bad night in Fox Run.

Calls concentrate on a handful of blocks Ten blocks out of 65 produce 49% of all calls for service. 16500 Fox Den 26 6500 Falls Church 22 6300 Red Fox 18 16500 Twin Fox 18 16500 Hunting Glen 17 6200 Fox Crk 16 6300 Willow Hill 11 16600 Willow Run 9 16700 Fort Oswego 9 16651-16699 Willow Run 9 Block numbers only. SAPD does not publish exact addresses in this report.
The ten blocks producing the most calls for service. Block numbers only, as published by SAPD.

Ten of 65 blocks produce half of all calls. That sounds alarming until the top block gets examined. The 16500 block of Fox Den leads with 26 calls, and almost all of them are welfare checks, missing person calls, and requests for assistance. That is the signature of one address with recurring needs, not a block where anyone is in danger.

This is the trap in every neighborhood crime map. A high number can mean a risky block. It can also mean one household going through something hard, or one attentive neighbor who reports everything. Call counts measure how often police get contacted, not how much danger exists.

A note on how recent this data is

Newer data is not available. The request behind this file asked for August 1, 2024 through July 31, 2026. SAPD returned records through May 30, 2026. Two months of calls exist and are not published yet.

That lag is the current state of public safety transparency in San Antonio, and it has moved in one direction. SAPD radio traffic is encrypted, so residents and local reporters cannot follow activity as it happens. The published record arrives months late. SAPD also excludes calls that privacy law prevents it from releasing, which means the file below is a subset of dispatch activity, not the whole of it. Any neighborhood analysis, including this one, works from a delayed and partial record.

Where this analysis could be wrong

Three limits worth stating plainly.

Calls measure reporting, not crime. A neighborhood that gets more organized about calling police will show rising numbers with no change in what is actually happening. A neighborhood that gives up calling will show falling numbers. Nothing here can separate the two.

The sample is small. Eleven statistical comparisons were run between the two matched years. Four came back significant on their own, but correcting for the fact that eleven questions were asked at once leaves none of them significant at the strictest standard, including the vehicle crime finding. Loosen the standard slightly and four survive, with vehicle crime ranked first. The car break-in pattern is the best-supported thing in this file. It is still a pattern worth watching rather than a proven fact.

The comparison next door does not exist yet. The per-home rates above use a Bexar County Appraisal District parcel count for the Fox Run boundary, so the denominator is solid. What is missing is a neighbor. No adjacent subdivision has had the same data pulled, so these rates have nothing to sit against. Anyone claiming Fox Run is safer or more dangerous than the subdivision next door, using this data, is guessing. That comparison is worth building, and it takes one more records pull per HOA.

The short version

Fox Run is stable. Most of what neighbors call about is not crime. School traffic is a real and fixable annoyance on two streets. And somewhere out there is a person who checks car doors a few nights a year, who has visited at least five streets in this neighborhood, and who will keep coming back as long as the doors keep opening.

Lock the car.

Source and method. SAPD Calls for Service report, webapp3.sanantonio.gov/policecalls/Reports.aspx, filtered to HOA = Fox Run. 315 records, response dates August 4, 2024 through May 30, 2026, all in ZIP 78247, Council District 10, North East ISD. Year over year comparisons use matched ten-month windows (August through May) tested with an exact binomial test at equal exposure. Trend estimated by ordinary least squares on monthly counts. Multiple comparisons assessed by Benjamini-Hochberg. Per-home rates use a Bexar County Appraisal District parcel export for the Fox Run boundary: 463 records, reduced to 457 distinct parcels after removing six duplicate rows created by fractional-interest splits, then to 451 residential addresses after removing a water well site, four Nacogdoches Road parcels outside the neighborhood, and one vacant adjoining lot that shares an address with the house beside it. Rates are annualized over the 22 months of call coverage, except vehicle crime, which is annualized over the 12 months in which those calls occurred. No records were excluded, imputed, or recategorized.